Coronavirus disease-19 spread in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, updates and prediction of disease progression in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan
Abstract
Objectives: The present study is considered the first study that aims to estimate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and to predict the pattern of spread among KSA in comparison to Iran and Pakistan.
Methodology: Data during the period from 29 January till 14 April 2020 was extracted from 76 WHO situational reports and from the Worldometer website. Numbers of populations in each country was considered during data analysis. SIRD Model and Smoothing Spline Regression model were used to predict the number of cases in each country.
Results: SIRD model in KSA yieldedβ = 2e-0.6, γ = 0.006 and m= 0.00038 and R0= 0.00029. It is expected that by the 1st of May 2020 that number of cumulative infected cases would rise to 16848 in KSA, and to 11825 in Pakistan while in Iran, it is expected that the number mostly will be100485. Moreover, the basic reproduction number R0 is expected to decrease by time progression.
Conclusion: The cumulative infected cases are expected to grow exponentially. Although R0 is expected to be decreased, the quarantine measures should be maintained or even enhanced.
Keywords:
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).